Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#27 in the world · win 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
100 Thieves#32 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2100 Thieves pick
67%71%
HOTU · 20 mapsnearly even -4%100 Thieves · 13 maps
Ancientpossible decider
61%50%
HOTU · 14 mapsedge HOTU +11%100 Thieves · 8 maps
Cache100 Thieves ban
60%50%
HOTU · 21 mapedge HOTU +10%100 Thieves · 0 maps
NukeHOTU ban
67%50%
HOTU · 11 mapsedge HOTU +17%100 Thieves · 10 maps
AnubisHOTU pick
73%45%
HOTU · 11 mapsedge HOTU +28%100 Thieves · 7 maps
Mirage100 Thieves ban
60%63%
HOTU · 11 mapsnearly even -3%100 Thieves · 4 maps
InfernoHOTU ban
40%50%
HOTU · 1 mapedge 100 Thieves +10%100 Thieves · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Inferno
2. Ban100 Thieves remove Cache
3. PickHOTU take Anubis
4. Pick100 Thieves take Dust2
5. Ban100 Thieves remove Mirage
6. BanHOTU remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (61% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:8
HOTU 79%100 Thieves 21%
The model gave 79% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Mirageprediction missed13:9
HOTU 44%100 Thieves 56%
The model gave 56% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 61%
Series resultHOTU 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2