Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#41 in the world · win 2:0series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HOTU pick
62%50%
HOTU · 17 mapsedge HOTU +12%Galactik rebels · 0 maps
Ancientpossible decider
63%50%
HOTU · 12 mapsedge HOTU +13%Galactik rebels · 0 maps
CacheHOTU ban
54%50%
HOTU · 9 mapsnearly even +4%Galactik rebels · 0 maps
NukeGalactik rebels ban
75%50%
HOTU · 8 mapsedge HOTU +25%Galactik rebels · 0 maps
MirageGalactik rebels pick
50%50%
HOTU · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Galactik rebels · 0 maps
AnubisGalactik rebels ban
67%50%
HOTU · 5 mapsedge HOTU +17%Galactik rebels · 0 maps
OverpassHOTU ban
29%50%
HOTU · 3 mapsedge Galactik rebels +21%Galactik rebels · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Overpass
2. BanGalactik rebels remove Nuke
3. PickHOTU take Dust2
4. PickGalactik rebels take Mirage
5. BanGalactik rebels remove Anubis
6. BanHOTU remove Cache
DeciderAncient (63% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:1
HOTU 64%Galactik rebels 36%
The model gave 64% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Nukeprediction correct13:1
HOTU 77%Galactik rebels 23%
The model gave 77% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 87%
Series resultHOTU 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2