Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#41 in the world · win 2:0series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
GenOne#95 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2GenOne pick
62%73%
HOTU · 17 mapsedge GenOne +11%GenOne · 48 maps
AncientGenOne ban
63%50%
HOTU · 12 mapsedge HOTU +13%GenOne · 28 maps
NukeHOTU pick
77%60%
HOTU · 9 mapsedge HOTU +17%GenOne · 26 maps
AnubisHOTU ban
70%67%
HOTU · 6 mapsnearly even +3%GenOne · 14 maps
InfernoHOTU ban
50%50%
HOTU · 0 mapsnearly even +0%GenOne · 16 maps
OverpassGenOne ban
29%38%
HOTU · 3 mapsedge GenOne +9%GenOne · 12 maps
Cachepossible decider
54%50%
HOTU · 9 mapsnearly even +4%GenOne · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Inferno
2. BanGenOne remove Ancient
3. PickHOTU take Nuke
4. PickGenOne take Dust2
5. BanGenOne remove Overpass
6. BanHOTU remove Anubis
DeciderCache (54% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:4
HOTU 35%GenOne 65%
The model gave 65% on GenOne — the map was taken by HOTU.
Cacheprediction correct13:6
HOTU 57%GenOne 43%
The model gave 57% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 57%
Series resultHOTU 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2