Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#41 in the world · win 2:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Inner Circle#28 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HOTU pick
65%73%
HOTU · 19 mapsedge Inner Circle +8%Inner Circle · 11 maps
AncientHOTU ban
63%71%
HOTU · 12 mapsedge Inner Circle +8%Inner Circle · 10 maps
MirageInner Circle pick
50%53%
HOTU · 6 mapsnearly even -3%Inner Circle · 11 maps
NukeInner Circle ban
79%60%
HOTU · 10 mapsedge HOTU +19%Inner Circle · 6 maps
Cachepossible decider
57%60%
HOTU · 10 mapsnearly even -3%Inner Circle · 1 map
AnubisInner Circle ban
70%57%
HOTU · 6 mapsedge HOTU +13%Inner Circle · 3 maps
OverpassHOTU ban
29%56%
HOTU · 3 mapsedge Inner Circle +27%Inner Circle · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Overpass
2. BanInner Circle remove Nuke
3. PickHOTU take Dust2
4. PickInner Circle take Mirage
5. BanInner Circle remove Anubis
6. BanHOTU remove Ancient
DeciderCache (57% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:10
HOTU 37%Inner Circle 63%
The model gave 63% on Inner Circle — the map was taken by HOTU.
Nukeprediction missed3:13
HOTU 73%Inner Circle 27%
The model gave 73% on HOTU — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Anubisprediction correct13:11
HOTU 64%Inner Circle 36%
The model gave 64% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 52%
Series resultHOTU 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3