NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#41 in the world · win 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
KOLESIE#117 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2KOLESIE ban
58%33%
HOTU · 8 mapsedge HOTU +25%KOLESIE · 8 maps
NukeHOTU pick
70%71%
HOTU · 6 mapsnearly even -1%KOLESIE · 10 maps
Ancientpossible decider
67%50%
HOTU · 5 mapsedge HOTU +17%KOLESIE · 8 maps
OverpassKOLESIE pick
40%57%
HOTU · 1 mapedge KOLESIE +17%KOLESIE · 10 maps
AnubisKOLESIE ban
60%50%
HOTU · 1 mapedge HOTU +10%KOLESIE · 8 maps
MirageHOTU ban
50%62%
HOTU · 0 mapsedge KOLESIE +12%KOLESIE · 9 maps
DefaultHOTU ban
50%60%
HOTU · 0 mapsedge KOLESIE +10%KOLESIE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Mirage
2. BanKOLESIE remove Dust2
3. PickHOTU take Nuke
4. PickKOLESIE take Overpass
5. BanKOLESIE remove Anubis
6. BanHOTU remove Default
DeciderAncient (67% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:9
HOTU 45%KOLESIE 55%
The model gave 55% on KOLESIE — the map was taken by HOTU.
Dust2prediction correct19:17
HOTU 76%KOLESIE 24%
The model gave 76% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 62%
Series resultHOTU 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2