WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#41 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemesis#43 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
64%63%
HOTU · 21 mapnearly even +1%Nemesis · 15 maps
AncientNemesis pick
61%56%
HOTU · 14 mapsedge HOTU +5%Nemesis · 21 map
CacheHOTU pick
63%67%
HOTU · 23 mapsnearly even -4%Nemesis · 8 maps
MirageNemesis ban
65%50%
HOTU · 13 mapsedge HOTU +15%Nemesis · 10 maps
NukeHOTU ban
60%62%
HOTU · 11 mapsnearly even -2%Nemesis · 9 maps
AnubisNemesis ban
67%50%
HOTU · 17 mapsedge HOTU +17%Nemesis · 0 maps
InfernoHOTU ban
40%61%
HOTU · 1 mapedge Nemesis +21%Nemesis · 14 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Inferno
2. BanNemesis remove Anubis
3. PickHOTU take Cache
4. PickNemesis take Ancient
5. BanNemesis remove Mirage
6. BanHOTU remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (64% / 63%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed8:13
HOTU 52%Nemesis 48%
The model gave 52% on HOTU — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
HOTU 54%Nemesis 46%
The model gave 54% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Cacheprediction correct11:13
HOTU 46%Nemesis 54%
The model gave 54% on Nemesis — the map was taken by Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 69%
Series resultNemesis 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3