1win Private Club Season 1 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#27 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga#46 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HOTU pick
67%56%
HOTU · 20 mapsedge HOTU +11%Nemiga · 12 maps
AncientHOTU ban
56%41%
HOTU · 12 mapsedge HOTU +15%Nemiga · 13 maps
CacheNemiga ban
65%43%
HOTU · 19 mapsedge HOTU +22%Nemiga · 3 maps
AnubisNemiga pick
73%75%
HOTU · 11 mapsnearly even -2%Nemiga · 8 maps
MirageHOTU ban
60%64%
HOTU · 11 mapsnearly even -4%Nemiga · 7 maps
NukeNemiga ban
64%55%
HOTU · 10 mapsedge HOTU +9%Nemiga · 7 maps
Defaultpossible decider
57%40%
HOTU · 3 mapsedge HOTU +17%Nemiga · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Mirage
2. BanNemiga remove Cache
3. PickHOTU take Dust2
4. PickNemiga take Anubis
5. BanNemiga remove Nuke
6. BanHOTU remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (57% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:3
HOTU 62%Nemiga 38%
The model gave 62% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Cacheprediction missed4:13
HOTU 74%Nemiga 26%
The model gave 74% on HOTU — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Infernoprediction missed7:13
HOTU 50%Nemiga 50%
The model gave 50% on HOTU — the map was taken by Nemiga.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 70%
Series resultNemiga 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3