IEM Beijing 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#27 in the world · win 2:0series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
paiN#23 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
68%50%
HOTU · 18 mapsedge HOTU +18%paiN · 4 maps
NukepaiN pick
64%56%
HOTU · 7 mapsedge HOTU +8%paiN · 12 maps
CacheHOTU pick
61%25%
HOTU · 14 mapsedge HOTU +36%paiN · 4 maps
MirageHOTU ban
55%40%
HOTU · 7 mapsedge HOTU +15%paiN · 6 maps
AnubispaiN ban
71%50%
HOTU · 10 mapsedge HOTU +21%paiN · 2 maps
AncientpaiN ban
58%50%
HOTU · 8 mapsedge HOTU +8%paiN · 0 maps
InfernoHOTU ban
50%45%
HOTU · 0 mapsedge HOTU +5%paiN · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Inferno
2. BanpaiN remove Ancient
3. PickHOTU take Cache
4. PickpaiN take Nuke
5. BanpaiN remove Anubis
6. BanHOTU remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (68% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:11
HOTU 84%paiN 16%
The model gave 84% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Nukeprediction correct13:4
HOTU 55%paiN 45%
The model gave 55% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoritepaiN · 58%
Series resultHOTU 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2