1win Private Club Season 2 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#41 in the world · win 2:1series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:1
STATE#137 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheHOTU pick
61%58%
HOTU · 24 mapsnearly even +3%STATE · 8 maps
AncientHOTU ban
58%46%
HOTU · 15 mapsedge HOTU +12%STATE · 9 maps
Dust2STATE ban
65%50%
HOTU · 22 mapsedge HOTU +15%STATE · 0 maps
MirageHOTU ban
65%36%
HOTU · 13 mapsedge HOTU +29%STATE · 7 maps
NukeSTATE pick
60%58%
HOTU · 11 mapsnearly even +2%STATE · 8 maps
AnubisSTATE ban
67%40%
HOTU · 17 mapsedge HOTU +27%STATE · 1 map
Defaultpossible decider
57%57%
HOTU · 3 mapsnearly even +0%STATE · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Mirage
2. BanSTATE remove Dust2
3. PickHOTU take Cache
4. PickSTATE take Nuke
5. BanSTATE remove Anubis
6. BanHOTU remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (57% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:3
HOTU 49%STATE 51%
The model gave 51% on STATE — the map was taken by HOTU.
Anubisprediction missed5:13
HOTU 77%STATE 23%
The model gave 77% on HOTU — the map was taken by STATE.
Cacheprediction correct16:12
HOTU 52%STATE 48%
The model gave 52% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 75%
Series resultHOTU 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3