WINLINE MPKBK CIS LAN Season 6 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
20%80%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TDK#86 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HTX ban
50%79%
HTX · 0 mapsedge TDK +29%TDK · 15 maps
OverpassTDK pick
50%79%
HTX · 0 mapsedge TDK +29%TDK · 15 maps
MirageHTX pick
40%47%
HTX · 1 mapedge TDK +7%TDK · 11 maps
AncientTDK ban
50%60%
HTX · 0 mapsedge TDK +10%TDK · 11 maps
InfernoHTX ban
50%45%
HTX · 0 mapsedge HTX +5%TDK · 7 maps
AnubisTDK ban
50%50%
HTX · 0 mapsnearly even +0%TDK · 6 maps
Defaultpossible decider
50%67%
HTX · 0 mapsedge TDK +17%TDK · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHTX remove Inferno
2. BanTDK remove Ancient
3. PickHTX take Mirage
4. PickTDK take Overpass
5. BanTDK remove Anubis
6. BanHTX remove Dust2
DeciderDefault (50% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct3:13
HTX 40%TDK 60%
The model gave 60% on TDK — the map was taken by TDK.
Dust2prediction correct2:13
HTX 23%TDK 77%
The model gave 77% on TDK — the map was taken by TDK.
Model check result
Model favoriteTDK · 80%
Series resultTDK 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2