BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
HYPERSPIRIT#135 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 0:2
aAa#132 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageaAa ban
38%50%
HYPERSPIRIT · 4 mapsedge aAa +12%aAa · 0 maps
Dust2aAa pick
40%33%
HYPERSPIRIT · 1 mapedge HYPERSPIRIT +7%aAa · 2 maps
NukeHYPERSPIRIT ban
40%33%
HYPERSPIRIT · 1 mapedge HYPERSPIRIT +7%aAa · 2 maps
AnubisaAa ban
33%50%
HYPERSPIRIT · 2 mapsedge aAa +17%aAa · 0 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%40%
HYPERSPIRIT · 0 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +10%aAa · 1 map
DefaultHYPERSPIRIT pick
60%50%
HYPERSPIRIT · 1 mapedge HYPERSPIRIT +10%aAa · 0 maps
InfernoHYPERSPIRIT ban
50%40%
HYPERSPIRIT · 0 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +10%aAa · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Inferno
2. BanaAa remove Mirage
3. PickHYPERSPIRIT take Default
4. PickaAa take Dust2
5. BanaAa remove Anubis
6. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed9:13
HYPERSPIRIT 54%aAa 46%
The model gave 54% on HYPERSPIRIT — the map was taken by aAa.
Anubisprediction correct3:13
HYPERSPIRIT 36%aAa 64%
The model gave 64% on aAa — the map was taken by aAa.
Model check result
Model favoriteHYPERSPIRIT · 54%
Series resultaAa 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2