ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
HYPERSPIRIT#147 in the world · win 2:1series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
56%31%
HYPERSPIRIT · 5 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +25%Banda Chuya · 9 maps
AncientBanda Chuya pick
25%56%
HYPERSPIRIT · 8 mapsedge Banda Chuya +31%Banda Chuya · 5 maps
CacheHYPERSPIRIT pick
62%25%
HYPERSPIRIT · 9 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +37%Banda Chuya · 4 maps
Dust2HYPERSPIRIT ban
40%67%
HYPERSPIRIT · 6 mapsedge Banda Chuya +27%Banda Chuya · 5 maps
AnubisBanda Chuya ban
50%29%
HYPERSPIRIT · 6 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +21%Banda Chuya · 3 maps
InfernoBanda Chuya ban
46%50%
HYPERSPIRIT · 9 mapsnearly even -4%Banda Chuya · 0 maps
NukeHYPERSPIRIT ban
50%44%
HYPERSPIRIT · 0 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +6%Banda Chuya · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Nuke
2. BanBanda Chuya remove Inferno
3. PickHYPERSPIRIT take Cache
4. PickBanda Chuya take Ancient
5. BanBanda Chuya remove Anubis
6. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (56% / 31%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
HYPERSPIRIT 19%Banda Chuya 81%
The model gave 81% on Banda Chuya — the map was taken by HYPERSPIRIT.
Cacheprediction missed8:13
HYPERSPIRIT 84%Banda Chuya 16%
The model gave 84% on HYPERSPIRIT — the map was taken by Banda Chuya.
Mirageprediction correct13:10
HYPERSPIRIT 74%Banda Chuya 26%
The model gave 74% on HYPERSPIRIT — the map was taken by HYPERSPIRIT.
Model check result
Model favoriteHYPERSPIRIT · 64%
Series resultHYPERSPIRIT 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3