Digital Crusade DraculaN Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
HYPERSPIRIT#151 in the world · win 2:0series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MOUZ NXT#146 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheHYPERSPIRIT pick
61%42%
HYPERSPIRIT · 14 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +19%MOUZ NXT · 15 maps
Dust2HYPERSPIRIT ban
42%38%
HYPERSPIRIT · 8 mapsnearly even +4%MOUZ NXT · 20 maps
NukeHYPERSPIRIT ban
50%55%
HYPERSPIRIT · 0 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +5%MOUZ NXT · 27 maps
Miragepossible decider
43%30%
HYPERSPIRIT · 10 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +13%MOUZ NXT · 16 maps
AncientMOUZ NXT pick
33%56%
HYPERSPIRIT · 11 mapsedge MOUZ NXT +23%MOUZ NXT · 12 maps
AnubisMOUZ NXT ban
50%44%
HYPERSPIRIT · 6 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +6%MOUZ NXT · 5 maps
InfernoMOUZ NXT ban
50%40%
HYPERSPIRIT · 10 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +10%MOUZ NXT · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Nuke
2. BanMOUZ NXT remove Inferno
3. PickHYPERSPIRIT take Cache
4. PickMOUZ NXT take Ancient
5. BanMOUZ NXT remove Anubis
6. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (43% / 30%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:2
HYPERSPIRIT 51%MOUZ NXT 49%
The model gave 51% on HYPERSPIRIT — the map was taken by HYPERSPIRIT.
Cacheprediction correct13:6
HYPERSPIRIT 71%MOUZ NXT 29%
The model gave 71% on HYPERSPIRIT — the map was taken by HYPERSPIRIT.
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ NXT · 60%
Series resultHYPERSPIRIT 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2