CCT 2026 Europe Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Iberian Soul#57 in the world · win 2:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Butterfly#127 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientButterfly pick
53%59%
Iberian Soul · 11 mapsedge Butterfly +6%Butterfly · 13 maps
InfernoButterfly ban
58%20%
Iberian Soul · 8 mapsedge Iberian Soul +38%Butterfly · 11 maps
Nukepossible decider
63%61%
Iberian Soul · 4 mapsnearly even +2%Butterfly · 14 maps
MirageIberian Soul ban
56%69%
Iberian Soul · 5 mapsedge Butterfly +13%Butterfly · 9 maps
Dust2Iberian Soul ban
50%63%
Iberian Soul · 0 mapsedge Butterfly +13%Butterfly · 12 maps
CacheButterfly ban
30%63%
Iberian Soul · 6 mapsedge Butterfly +33%Butterfly · 4 maps
DefaultIberian Soul pick
50%63%
Iberian Soul · 0 mapsedge Butterfly +13%Butterfly · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIberian Soul remove Dust2
2. BanButterfly remove Inferno
3. PickIberian Soul take Default
4. PickButterfly take Ancient
5. BanButterfly remove Cache
6. BanIberian Soul remove Mirage
DeciderNuke (63% / 61%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct5:13
Iberian Soul 33%Butterfly 67%
The model gave 67% on Butterfly — the map was taken by Butterfly.
Infernoprediction correct13:7
Iberian Soul 86%Butterfly 14%
The model gave 86% on Iberian Soul — the map was taken by Iberian Soul.
Nukeprediction correct13:11
Iberian Soul 51%Butterfly 49%
The model gave 51% on Iberian Soul — the map was taken by Iberian Soul.
Model check result
Model favoriteIberian Soul · 60%
Series resultIberian Soul 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3