NODWIN Clutch Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
illwillloss 0:2series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2illwill pick
60%70%
illwill · 1 mapedge ex-RUBY +10%ex-RUBY · 6 maps
Mirageex-RUBY pick
50%56%
illwill · 2 mapsedge ex-RUBY +6%ex-RUBY · 5 maps
Ancientex-RUBY ban
50%29%
illwill · 2 mapsedge illwill +21%ex-RUBY · 3 maps
Nukeex-RUBY ban
40%75%
illwill · 1 mapedge ex-RUBY +35%ex-RUBY · 4 maps
Overpassillwill ban
50%44%
illwill · 0 mapsedge illwill +6%ex-RUBY · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banillwill remove Overpass
2. Banex-RUBY remove Ancient
3. Pickillwill take Dust2
4. Pickex-RUBY take Mirage
5. Banex-RUBY remove Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
illwill 42%ex-RUBY 58%
The model gave 58% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Dust2prediction correct3:13
illwill 42%ex-RUBY 58%
The model gave 58% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-RUBY · 67%
Series resultex-RUBY 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2