CCT 2026 Europe Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
illwillwin 2:0series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:0
RUSTEC#124 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2illwill pick
50%36%
illwill · 4 mapsedge illwill +14%RUSTEC · 10 maps
MirageRUSTEC pick
33%56%
illwill · 5 mapsedge RUSTEC +23%RUSTEC · 5 maps
Nukepossible decider
33%40%
illwill · 2 mapsedge RUSTEC +7%RUSTEC · 6 maps
Overpassillwill ban
67%44%
illwill · 2 mapsedge illwill +23%RUSTEC · 5 maps
AncientRUSTEC ban
43%50%
illwill · 3 mapsedge RUSTEC +7%RUSTEC · 0 maps
Infernoillwill ban
50%71%
illwill · 0 mapsedge RUSTEC +21%RUSTEC · 3 maps
AnubisRUSTEC ban
40%40%
illwill · 1 mapnearly even +0%RUSTEC · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banillwill remove Inferno
2. BanRUSTEC remove Anubis
3. Pickillwill take Dust2
4. PickRUSTEC take Mirage
5. BanRUSTEC remove Ancient
6. Banillwill remove Overpass
DeciderNuke (33% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct19:17
illwill 67%RUSTEC 33%
The model gave 67% on illwill — the map was taken by illwill.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
illwill 26%RUSTEC 74%
The model gave 74% on RUSTEC — the map was taken by illwill.
Model check result
Model favoriteRUSTEC · 67%
Series resultillwill 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2