CCT 2026 Europe Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
illwillwin 2:1series probability
21%79%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Virtus.pro#50 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Virtus.pro ban
56%50%
illwill · 5 mapsedge illwill +6%Virtus.pro · 4 maps
Miragepossible decider
40%71%
illwill · 6 mapsedge Virtus.pro +31%Virtus.pro · 3 maps
Ancientillwill ban
43%63%
illwill · 3 mapsedge Virtus.pro +20%Virtus.pro · 4 maps
OverpassVirtus.pro pick
67%67%
illwill · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Virtus.pro · 5 maps
Anubisillwill ban
40%50%
illwill · 1 mapedge Virtus.pro +10%Virtus.pro · 4 maps
NukeVirtus.pro ban
33%67%
illwill · 2 mapsedge Virtus.pro +34%Virtus.pro · 2 maps
Defaultillwill pick
50%40%
illwill · 0 mapsedge illwill +10%Virtus.pro · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banillwill remove Ancient
2. BanVirtus.pro remove Dust2
3. Pickillwill take Default
4. PickVirtus.pro take Overpass
5. BanVirtus.pro remove Nuke
6. Banillwill remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (40% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed11:13
illwill 58%Virtus.pro 42%
The model gave 58% on illwill — the map was taken by Virtus.pro.
Mirageprediction missed13:11
illwill 19%Virtus.pro 81%
The model gave 81% on Virtus.pro — the map was taken by illwill.
Overpassprediction correct13:10
illwill 50%Virtus.pro 50%
The model gave 50% on illwill — the map was taken by illwill.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 79%
Series resultillwill 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3