Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Illyrians#144 in the world · win 2:1series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:1
WW#123 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2WW pick
44%56%
Illyrians · 5 mapsedge WW +12%WW · 14 maps
MirageIllyrians pick
56%60%
Illyrians · 5 mapsnearly even -4%WW · 11 maps
Anubispossible decider
71%50%
Illyrians · 3 mapsedge Illyrians +21%WW · 6 maps
AncientWW ban
67%43%
Illyrians · 2 mapsedge Illyrians +24%WW · 3 maps
NukeIllyrians ban
50%56%
Illyrians · 0 mapsedge WW +6%WW · 5 maps
CacheWW ban
50%38%
Illyrians · 0 mapsedge Illyrians +12%WW · 4 maps
InfernoIllyrians ban
50%60%
Illyrians · 2 mapsedge WW +10%WW · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIllyrians remove Nuke
2. BanWW remove Ancient
3. PickIllyrians take Mirage
4. PickWW take Dust2
5. BanWW remove Cache
6. BanIllyrians remove Inferno
DeciderAnubis (71% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
Illyrians 42%WW 58%
The model gave 58% on WW — the map was taken by Illyrians.
Ancientprediction missed11:13
Illyrians 75%WW 25%
The model gave 75% on Illyrians — the map was taken by WW.
Dust2prediction missed13:3
Illyrians 39%WW 61%
The model gave 61% on WW — the map was taken by Illyrians.
Model check result
Model favoriteWW · 57%
Series resultIllyrians 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3