Circuit X Curitiba Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Imperial#51 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BESTIA#65 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2BESTIA pick
56%65%
Imperial · 14 mapsedge BESTIA +9%BESTIA · 16 maps
InfernoBESTIA ban
67%50%
Imperial · 23 mapsedge Imperial +17%BESTIA · 6 maps
MirageImperial pick
73%55%
Imperial · 22 mapsedge Imperial +18%BESTIA · 7 maps
NukeImperial ban
67%67%
Imperial · 17 mapsnearly even +0%BESTIA · 5 maps
Cachepossible decider
63%36%
Imperial · 12 mapsedge Imperial +27%BESTIA · 7 maps
AncientImperial ban
50%50%
Imperial · 0 mapsnearly even +0%BESTIA · 8 maps
AnubisBESTIA ban
55%50%
Imperial · 7 mapsedge Imperial +5%BESTIA · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanImperial remove Ancient
2. BanBESTIA remove Anubis
3. PickImperial take Mirage
4. PickBESTIA take Dust2
5. BanBESTIA remove Inferno
6. BanImperial remove Nuke
DeciderCache (63% / 36%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed10:13
Imperial 67%BESTIA 33%
The model gave 67% on Imperial — the map was taken by BESTIA.
Nukeprediction correct13:2
Imperial 53%BESTIA 47%
The model gave 53% on Imperial — the map was taken by Imperial.
Infernoprediction missed11:13
Imperial 67%BESTIA 33%
The model gave 67% on Imperial — the map was taken by BESTIA.
Model check result
Model favoriteImperial · 76%
Series resultBESTIA 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3