Thunderpick World Championship 2026 South America Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Imperial#51 in the world · win 2:1series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Isurus#186 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Imperial pick
62%53%
Imperial · 9 mapsedge Imperial +9%Isurus · 15 maps
MirageIsurus pick
54%57%
Imperial · 9 mapsnearly even -3%Isurus · 10 maps
Infernopossible decider
67%50%
Imperial · 8 mapsedge Imperial +17%Isurus · 6 maps
NukeIsurus ban
63%55%
Imperial · 4 mapsedge Imperial +8%Isurus · 7 maps
AncientImperial ban
50%50%
Imperial · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Isurus · 8 maps
AnubisIsurus ban
60%50%
Imperial · 6 mapsedge Imperial +10%Isurus · 0 maps
OverpassImperial ban
50%43%
Imperial · 2 mapsedge Imperial +7%Isurus · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanImperial remove Ancient
2. BanIsurus remove Anubis
3. PickImperial take Dust2
4. PickIsurus take Mirage
5. BanIsurus remove Nuke
6. BanImperial remove Overpass
DeciderInferno (67% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
Imperial 50%Isurus 50%
The model gave 50% on Isurus — the map was taken by Isurus.
Nukeprediction correct13:5
Imperial 55%Isurus 45%
The model gave 55% on Imperial — the map was taken by Imperial.
Infernoprediction correct13:5
Imperial 67%Isurus 33%
The model gave 67% on Imperial — the map was taken by Imperial.
Model check result
Model favoriteImperial · 71%
Series resultImperial 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3