PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 South America Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Imperial#61 in the world · win 2:1series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:1
paiN#23 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernopaiN ban
71%45%
Imperial · 20 mapsedge Imperial +26%paiN · 7 maps
MirageImperial pick
71%50%
Imperial · 20 mapsedge Imperial +21%paiN · 6 maps
NukepaiN pick
68%47%
Imperial · 15 mapsedge Imperial +21%paiN · 11 maps
Dust2Imperial ban
59%56%
Imperial · 13 mapsnearly even +3%paiN · 5 maps
CachepaiN ban
67%20%
Imperial · 11 mapsedge Imperial +47%paiN · 6 maps
AnubisImperial ban
60%40%
Imperial · 6 mapsedge Imperial +20%paiN · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanImperial remove Dust2
2. BanpaiN remove Cache
3. PickImperial take Mirage
4. PickpaiN take Nuke
5. BanpaiN remove Inferno
6. BanImperial remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
Imperial 77%paiN 23%
The model gave 77% on Imperial — the map was taken by Imperial.
Dust2prediction missed9:13
Imperial 50%paiN 50%
The model gave 50% on Imperial — the map was taken by paiN.
Mirageprediction correct13:10
Imperial 71%paiN 29%
The model gave 71% on Imperial — the map was taken by Imperial.
Model check result
Model favoritepaiN · 71%
Series resultImperial 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3