Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
INFINITE#71 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
100 Thieves#37 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
44%62%
INFINITE · 14 mapsedge 100 Thieves +18%100 Thieves · 9 maps
AncientINFINITE pick
54%59%
INFINITE · 9 mapsedge 100 Thieves +5%100 Thieves · 13 maps
Dust2100 Thieves pick
56%78%
INFINITE · 5 mapsedge 100 Thieves +22%100 Thieves · 14 maps
Nuke100 Thieves ban
46%46%
INFINITE · 9 mapsnearly even +0%100 Thieves · 9 maps
InfernoINFINITE ban
56%54%
INFINITE · 5 mapsnearly even +2%100 Thieves · 9 maps
AnubisINFINITE ban
40%38%
INFINITE · 1 mapnearly even +2%100 Thieves · 4 maps
Cache100 Thieves ban
50%50%
INFINITE · 2 mapsnearly even +0%100 Thieves · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINFINITE remove Anubis
2. Ban100 Thieves remove Nuke
3. PickINFINITE take Ancient
4. Pick100 Thieves take Dust2
5. Ban100 Thieves remove Cache
6. BanINFINITE remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (44% / 62%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed5:13
INFINITE 53%100 Thieves 47%
The model gave 53% on INFINITE — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Dust2prediction correct8:13
INFINITE 24%100 Thieves 76%
The model gave 76% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Model check result
Model favorite100 Thieves · 56%
Series result100 Thieves 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2