Digital Crusade DraculaN Season 7 · BO1
result vs prediction
INFINITE#78 in the world · win 13:5series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 13:5
BASEMENT BOYS#93 in the world · loss 5:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragepossible decider
55%67%
INFINITE · 18 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +12%BASEMENT BOYS · 17 maps
AncientBASEMENT BOYS ban
41%45%
INFINITE · 13 mapsnearly even -4%BASEMENT BOYS · 18 maps
Dust2INFINITE ban
28%56%
INFINITE · 14 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +28%BASEMENT BOYS · 12 maps
NukeINFINITE ban
42%56%
INFINITE · 8 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +14%BASEMENT BOYS · 14 maps
CacheBASEMENT BOYS ban
56%44%
INFINITE · 5 mapsedge INFINITE +12%BASEMENT BOYS · 12 maps
InfernoBASEMENT BOYS ban
38%40%
INFINITE · 9 mapsnearly even -2%BASEMENT BOYS · 1 map
AnubisINFINITE ban
40%56%
INFINITE · 1 mapedge BASEMENT BOYS +16%BASEMENT BOYS · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINFINITE remove Anubis
2. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Inferno
3. BanINFINITE remove Dust2
4. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Cache
5. BanINFINITE remove Nuke
6. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (55% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:5
INFINITE 46%BASEMENT BOYS 54%
The model gave 54% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by INFINITE.
Model check result
Model favoriteINFINITE · 52%
Series resultINFINITE 13:5
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1