Digital Crusade Super DraculaN Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
INFINITE#71 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:2
EAC#76 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeINFINITE ban
40%33%
INFINITE · 6 mapsedge INFINITE +7%EAC · 11 maps
MirageEAC pick
62%50%
INFINITE · 9 mapsedge INFINITE +12%EAC · 6 maps
AncientINFINITE pick
60%50%
INFINITE · 6 mapsedge INFINITE +10%EAC · 6 maps
OverpassINFINITE ban
40%50%
INFINITE · 1 mapedge EAC +10%EAC · 8 maps
Infernopossible decider
57%29%
INFINITE · 3 mapsedge INFINITE +28%EAC · 3 maps
Dust2EAC ban
56%50%
INFINITE · 5 mapsedge INFINITE +6%EAC · 0 maps
AnubisEAC ban
60%50%
INFINITE · 1 mapedge INFINITE +10%EAC · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINFINITE remove Overpass
2. BanEAC remove Dust2
3. PickINFINITE take Ancient
4. PickEAC take Mirage
5. BanEAC remove Anubis
6. BanINFINITE remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (57% / 29%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed5:13
INFINITE 54%EAC 46%
The model gave 54% on INFINITE — the map was taken by EAC.
Mirageprediction missed8:13
INFINITE 64%EAC 36%
The model gave 64% on INFINITE — the map was taken by EAC.
Model check result
Model favoriteINFINITE · 69%
Series resultEAC 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2