Roman Imperium Cup IX · BO3
result vs prediction
INFINITE#71 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
G2 Ares#103 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageINFINITE pick
52%42%
INFINITE · 17 mapsedge INFINITE +10%G2 Ares · 27 maps
InfernoG2 Ares pick
42%60%
INFINITE · 8 mapsedge G2 Ares +18%G2 Ares · 31 map
Dust2INFINITE ban
29%37%
INFINITE · 13 mapsedge G2 Ares +8%G2 Ares · 23 maps
Ancientpossible decider
47%52%
INFINITE · 11 mapsedge G2 Ares +5%G2 Ares · 21 map
CacheG2 Ares ban
56%47%
INFINITE · 5 mapsedge INFINITE +9%G2 Ares · 15 maps
AnubisINFINITE ban
40%42%
INFINITE · 1 mapnearly even -2%G2 Ares · 8 maps
NukeG2 Ares ban
42%50%
INFINITE · 8 mapsedge G2 Ares +8%G2 Ares · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINFINITE remove Anubis
2. BanG2 Ares remove Nuke
3. PickINFINITE take Mirage
4. PickG2 Ares take Inferno
5. BanG2 Ares remove Cache
6. BanINFINITE remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (47% / 52%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct7:13
INFINITE 30%G2 Ares 70%
The model gave 70% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Ancientprediction correct14:16
INFINITE 48%G2 Ares 52%
The model gave 52% on G2 Ares — the map was taken by G2 Ares.
Model check result
Model favoriteINFINITE · 64%
Series resultG2 Ares 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2