BC Game Masters Championship Season 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
INFINITE#71 in the world · win 13:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 13:2
KOLESIE#117 in the world · loss 2:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageKOLESIE ban
75%50%
INFINITE · 4 mapsedge INFINITE +25%KOLESIE · 0 maps
OverpassINFINITE ban
50%50%
INFINITE · 0 mapsnearly even +0%KOLESIE · 4 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%40%
INFINITE · 2 mapsedge INFINITE +10%KOLESIE · 1 map
AncientKOLESIE ban
50%33%
INFINITE · 0 mapsedge INFINITE +17%KOLESIE · 2 maps
AnubisINFINITE ban
60%40%
INFINITE · 1 mapedge INFINITE +20%KOLESIE · 1 map
InfernoKOLESIE ban
50%50%
INFINITE · 2 mapsnearly even +0%KOLESIE · 0 maps
DefaultINFINITE ban
50%60%
INFINITE · 0 mapsedge KOLESIE +10%KOLESIE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINFINITE remove Overpass
2. BanKOLESIE remove Inferno
3. BanINFINITE remove Anubis
4. BanKOLESIE remove Mirage
5. BanINFINITE remove Default
6. BanKOLESIE remove Ancient
DeciderDust2 (50% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:2
INFINITE 67%KOLESIE 33%
The model gave 67% on INFINITE — the map was taken by INFINITE.
Model check result
Model favoriteINFINITE · 60%
Series resultINFINITE 13:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1