BC Game Masters Championship Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
INFINITE#71 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
RBLS#93 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeINFINITE ban
60%54%
INFINITE · 1 mapedge INFINITE +6%RBLS · 9 maps
Dust2possible decider
50%57%
INFINITE · 2 mapsedge RBLS +7%RBLS · 3 maps
MirageRBLS ban
67%50%
INFINITE · 5 mapsedge INFINITE +17%RBLS · 0 maps
InfernoRBLS pick
50%67%
INFINITE · 2 mapsedge RBLS +17%RBLS · 2 maps
OverpassINFINITE ban
50%50%
INFINITE · 0 mapsnearly even +0%RBLS · 4 maps
AncientINFINITE pick
67%40%
INFINITE · 2 mapsedge INFINITE +27%RBLS · 1 map
AnubisRBLS ban
60%33%
INFINITE · 1 mapedge INFINITE +27%RBLS · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINFINITE remove Overpass
2. BanRBLS remove Mirage
3. PickINFINITE take Ancient
4. PickRBLS take Inferno
5. BanRBLS remove Anubis
6. BanINFINITE remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed14:16
INFINITE 53%RBLS 47%
The model gave 53% on INFINITE — the map was taken by RBLS.
Ancientprediction missed7:13
INFINITE 77%RBLS 23%
The model gave 77% on INFINITE — the map was taken by RBLS.
Model check result
Model favoriteINFINITE · 65%
Series resultRBLS 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2