LeonBet Masters Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
INFINITE#71 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
SAW#61 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageINFINITE pick
53%67%
INFINITE · 15 mapsedge SAW +14%SAW · 2 maps
Dust2SAW ban
36%33%
INFINITE · 10 mapsnearly even +3%SAW · 5 maps
Ancientpossible decider
27%45%
INFINITE · 7 mapsedge SAW +18%SAW · 7 maps
InfernoSAW pick
44%73%
INFINITE · 5 mapsedge SAW +29%SAW · 7 maps
NukeINFINITE ban
40%57%
INFINITE · 6 mapsedge SAW +17%SAW · 3 maps
CacheSAW ban
50%57%
INFINITE · 4 mapsedge SAW +7%SAW · 3 maps
AnubisINFINITE ban
40%44%
INFINITE · 1 mapnearly even -4%SAW · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINFINITE remove Anubis
2. BanSAW remove Dust2
3. PickINFINITE take Mirage
4. PickSAW take Inferno
5. BanSAW remove Cache
6. BanINFINITE remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (27% / 45%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct9:13
INFINITE 21%SAW 79%
The model gave 79% on SAW — the map was taken by SAW.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
INFINITE 56%SAW 44%
The model gave 56% on INFINITE — the map was taken by SAW.
Model check result
Model favoriteSAW · 54%
Series resultSAW 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2