Tipsport Open Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
INFURITY#115 in the world · win 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Diamant#210 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisINFURITY pick
50%29%
INFURITY · 2 mapsedge INFURITY +21%Diamant · 3 maps
AncientDiamant pick
60%60%
INFURITY · 1 mapnearly even +0%Diamant · 1 map
InfernoINFURITY ban
40%40%
INFURITY · 1 mapnearly even +0%Diamant · 1 map
MirageDiamant ban
50%33%
INFURITY · 0 mapsedge INFURITY +17%Diamant · 2 maps
Dust2INFURITY ban
50%60%
INFURITY · 0 mapsedge Diamant +10%Diamant · 1 map
NukeDiamant ban
60%50%
INFURITY · 1 mapedge INFURITY +10%Diamant · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINFURITY remove Dust2
2. BanDiamant remove Nuke
3. PickINFURITY take Anubis
4. PickDiamant take Ancient
5. BanDiamant remove Mirage
6. BanINFURITY remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction correct13:6
INFURITY 53%Diamant 47%
The model gave 53% on INFURITY — the map was taken by INFURITY.
Ancientprediction missed16:13
INFURITY 47%Diamant 53%
The model gave 53% on Diamant — the map was taken by INFURITY.
Model check result
Model favoriteDiamant · 52%
Series resultINFURITY 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2