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ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circle Academy#80 in the world · loss 0:2
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 0:2
BRUTE#74 in the world · win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Inner Circle Academy ban
55%64%
Inner Circle Academy · 7 mapsedge BRUTE +9%BRUTE · 10 maps
NukeBRUTE ban
50%50%
Inner Circle Academy · 6 mapsnearly even +0%BRUTE · 8 maps
Miragepossible decider
57%42%
Inner Circle Academy · 3 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +15%BRUTE · 8 maps
InfernoInner Circle Academy ban
40%46%
Inner Circle Academy · 1 mapedge BRUTE +6%BRUTE · 9 maps
OverpassBRUTE pick
67%73%
Inner Circle Academy · 2 mapsedge BRUTE +6%BRUTE · 7 maps
AncientBRUTE ban
50%50%
Inner Circle Academy · 6 mapsnearly even +0%BRUTE · 0 maps
AnubisInner Circle Academy pick
67%40%
Inner Circle Academy · 2 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +27%BRUTE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanInner Circle Academy remove Inferno
2. BanBRUTE remove Ancient
3. PickInner Circle Academy take Anubis
4. PickBRUTE take Overpass
5. BanBRUTE remove Nuke
6. BanInner Circle Academy remove Dust2
DeciderMirage (57% / 42%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct11:13
Inner Circle Academy 43%BRUTE 57%
The model gave 57% on BRUTE — the map was taken by BRUTE.
Nukeprediction correct9:13
Inner Circle Academy 47%BRUTE 53%
The model gave 53% on BRUTE — the map was taken by BRUTE.
Model check result
Model favoriteBRUTE · 52%
Series resultBRUTE 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2