NODWIN Clutch Series 10 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circle Academy#80 in the world · win 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
DONSTU#221 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Inner Circle Academy pick
50%38%
Inner Circle Academy · 8 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +12%DONSTU · 12 maps
AnubisDONSTU pick
67%55%
Inner Circle Academy · 2 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +12%DONSTU · 16 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%42%
Inner Circle Academy · 6 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +8%DONSTU · 8 maps
InfernoInner Circle Academy ban
40%43%
Inner Circle Academy · 1 mapnearly even -3%DONSTU · 10 maps
NukeDONSTU ban
45%43%
Inner Circle Academy · 7 mapsnearly even +2%DONSTU · 3 maps
CacheInner Circle Academy ban
50%75%
Inner Circle Academy · 0 mapsedge DONSTU +25%DONSTU · 4 maps
MirageDONSTU ban
57%50%
Inner Circle Academy · 3 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +7%DONSTU · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanInner Circle Academy remove Inferno
2. BanDONSTU remove Mirage
3. PickInner Circle Academy take Dust2
4. PickDONSTU take Anubis
5. BanDONSTU remove Nuke
6. BanInner Circle Academy remove Cache
DeciderAncient (50% / 42%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct13:5
Inner Circle Academy 59%DONSTU 41%
The model gave 59% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Dust2prediction correct16:14
Inner Circle Academy 65%DONSTU 35%
The model gave 65% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteDONSTU · 52%
Series resultInner Circle Academy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 2