ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circle Academy#80 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Inner Circle Academy pick
57%39%
Inner Circle Academy · 17 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +18%ex-MANA · 14 maps
Ancientpossible decider
39%40%
Inner Circle Academy · 14 mapsnearly even -1%ex-MANA · 6 maps
NukeInner Circle Academy ban
46%33%
Inner Circle Academy · 9 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +13%ex-MANA · 5 maps
Anubisex-MANA ban
54%33%
Inner Circle Academy · 9 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +21%ex-MANA · 2 maps
Mirageex-MANA pick
64%63%
Inner Circle Academy · 7 mapsnearly even +1%ex-MANA · 4 maps
Cacheex-MANA ban
57%50%
Inner Circle Academy · 3 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +7%ex-MANA · 0 maps
InfernoInner Circle Academy ban
40%33%
Inner Circle Academy · 1 mapedge Inner Circle Academy +7%ex-MANA · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanInner Circle Academy remove Inferno
2. Banex-MANA remove Cache
3. PickInner Circle Academy take Dust2
4. Pickex-MANA take Mirage
5. Banex-MANA remove Anubis
6. BanInner Circle Academy remove Nuke
DeciderAncient (39% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct11:13
Inner Circle Academy 48%ex-MANA 52%
The model gave 52% on ex-MANA — the map was taken by ex-MANA.
Anubisprediction correct13:5
Inner Circle Academy 72%ex-MANA 28%
The model gave 72% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Ancientprediction correct9:13
Inner Circle Academy 49%ex-MANA 51%
The model gave 51% on ex-MANA — the map was taken by ex-MANA.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle Academy · 69%
Series resultex-MANA 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map3 of 3