Urban Riga Open Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circle Academy#80 in the world · win 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
INFURITY#115 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2INFURITY ban
63%33%
Inner Circle Academy · 31 mapedge Inner Circle Academy +30%INFURITY · 2 maps
AncientINFURITY pick
48%71%
Inner Circle Academy · 25 mapsedge INFURITY +23%INFURITY · 3 maps
AnubisInner Circle Academy pick
61%43%
Inner Circle Academy · 24 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +18%INFURITY · 3 maps
Nukepossible decider
48%38%
Inner Circle Academy · 19 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +10%INFURITY · 4 maps
MirageINFURITY ban
53%50%
Inner Circle Academy · 15 mapsnearly even +3%INFURITY · 0 maps
CacheInner Circle Academy ban
46%50%
Inner Circle Academy · 9 mapsnearly even -4%INFURITY · 2 maps
InfernoInner Circle Academy ban
43%70%
Inner Circle Academy · 3 mapsedge INFURITY +27%INFURITY · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanInner Circle Academy remove Inferno
2. BanINFURITY remove Mirage
3. PickInner Circle Academy take Anubis
4. PickINFURITY take Ancient
5. BanINFURITY remove Dust2
6. BanInner Circle Academy remove Cache
DeciderNuke (48% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:8
Inner Circle Academy 30%INFURITY 70%
The model gave 70% on INFURITY — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Anubisprediction correct13:5
Inner Circle Academy 65%INFURITY 35%
The model gave 65% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle Academy · 69%
Series resultInner Circle Academy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2