Urban Riga Open Season 7 · BO1
result vs prediction
Inner Circle Academy#80 in the world · win 13:4series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 13:4
KUUSAMO#177 in the world · loss 4:13The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2KUUSAMO ban
61%38%
Inner Circle Academy · 29 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +23%KUUSAMO · 4 maps
NukeInner Circle Academy ban
50%64%
Inner Circle Academy · 18 mapsedge KUUSAMO +14%KUUSAMO · 10 maps
AncientKUUSAMO ban
50%29%
Inner Circle Academy · 24 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +21%KUUSAMO · 3 maps
AnubisKUUSAMO ban
61%50%
Inner Circle Academy · 24 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +11%KUUSAMO · 0 maps
Miragepossible decider
53%44%
Inner Circle Academy · 15 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +9%KUUSAMO · 5 maps
CacheInner Circle Academy ban
42%57%
Inner Circle Academy · 8 mapsedge KUUSAMO +15%KUUSAMO · 3 maps
InfernoInner Circle Academy ban
43%43%
Inner Circle Academy · 3 mapsnearly even +0%KUUSAMO · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanInner Circle Academy remove Inferno
2. BanKUUSAMO remove Anubis
3. BanInner Circle Academy remove Cache
4. BanKUUSAMO remove Dust2
5. BanInner Circle Academy remove Nuke
6. BanKUUSAMO remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (53% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:4
Inner Circle Academy 35%KUUSAMO 65%
The model gave 65% on KUUSAMO — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle Academy · 63%
Series resultInner Circle Academy 13:4
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1