ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circle Academy#103 in the world · win 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Strael Bora#202 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AnubisInner Circle Academy pick
60%25%
Inner Circle Academy · 16 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +35%Strael Bora · 4 maps
Dust2Strael Bora ban
54%50%
Inner Circle Academy · 20 mapsnearly even +4%Strael Bora · 0 maps
AncientStrael Bora pick
48%60%
Inner Circle Academy · 17 mapsedge Strael Bora +12%Strael Bora · 1 map
NukeInner Circle Academy ban
40%29%
Inner Circle Academy · 11 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +11%Strael Bora · 3 maps
MirageStrael Bora ban
57%50%
Inner Circle Academy · 10 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +7%Strael Bora · 0 maps
InfernoInner Circle Academy ban
50%57%
Inner Circle Academy · 2 mapsedge Strael Bora +7%Strael Bora · 3 maps
Cachepossible decider
63%50%
Inner Circle Academy · 4 mapsedge Inner Circle Academy +13%Strael Bora · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanInner Circle Academy remove Inferno
2. BanStrael Bora remove Dust2
3. PickInner Circle Academy take Anubis
4. PickStrael Bora take Ancient
5. BanStrael Bora remove Mirage
6. BanInner Circle Academy remove Nuke
DeciderCache (63% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
Inner Circle Academy 57%Strael Bora 43%
The model gave 57% on Inner Circle Academy — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Ancientprediction missed16:12
Inner Circle Academy 35%Strael Bora 65%
The model gave 65% on Strael Bora — the map was taken by Inner Circle Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle Academy · 59%
Series resultInner Circle Academy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2