Digital Crusade Super DraculaN Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circle#28 in the world · win 2:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
9INE#80 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust29INE ban
63%29%
Inner Circle · 4 mapsedge Inner Circle +34%9INE · 3 maps
Ancientpossible decider
43%57%
Inner Circle · 3 mapsedge 9INE +14%9INE · 3 maps
MirageInner Circle pick
50%50%
Inner Circle · 6 mapsnearly even +0%9INE · 0 maps
Nuke9INE pick
43%67%
Inner Circle · 3 mapsedge 9INE +24%9INE · 2 maps
OverpassInner Circle ban
57%50%
Inner Circle · 3 mapsedge Inner Circle +7%9INE · 0 maps
InfernoInner Circle ban
50%50%
Inner Circle · 0 mapsnearly even +0%9INE · 2 maps
Anubis9INE ban
50%40%
Inner Circle · 0 mapsedge Inner Circle +10%9INE · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanInner Circle remove Inferno
2. Ban9INE remove Dust2
3. PickInner Circle take Mirage
4. Pick9INE take Nuke
5. Ban9INE remove Anubis
6. BanInner Circle remove Overpass
DeciderAncient (43% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:7
Inner Circle 25%9INE 75%
The model gave 75% on 9INE — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
Inner Circle 82%9INE 18%
The model gave 82% on Inner Circle — the map was taken by 9INE.
Ancientprediction missed16:13
Inner Circle 36%9INE 64%
The model gave 64% on 9INE — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 53%
Series resultInner Circle 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3