Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circle#28 in the world · win 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ASTRAL#97 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientASTRAL pick
67%71%
Inner Circle · 8 mapsnearly even -4%ASTRAL · 20 maps
Dust2Inner Circle pick
73%50%
Inner Circle · 11 mapsedge Inner Circle +23%ASTRAL · 12 maps
MirageInner Circle ban
50%46%
Inner Circle · 10 mapsnearly even +4%ASTRAL · 9 maps
NukeASTRAL ban
60%36%
Inner Circle · 6 mapsedge Inner Circle +24%ASTRAL · 10 maps
Anubispossible decider
67%57%
Inner Circle · 2 mapsedge Inner Circle +10%ASTRAL · 10 maps
InfernoInner Circle ban
50%55%
Inner Circle · 0 mapsedge ASTRAL +5%ASTRAL · 7 maps
OverpassASTRAL ban
56%50%
Inner Circle · 5 mapsedge Inner Circle +6%ASTRAL · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanInner Circle remove Inferno
2. BanASTRAL remove Overpass
3. PickInner Circle take Dust2
4. PickASTRAL take Ancient
5. BanASTRAL remove Nuke
6. BanInner Circle remove Mirage
DeciderAnubis (67% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:6
Inner Circle 42%ASTRAL 58%
The model gave 58% on ASTRAL — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Mirageprediction correct13:6
Inner Circle 57%ASTRAL 43%
The model gave 57% on Inner Circle — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 67%
Series resultInner Circle 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2