Esports World Cup 2026 Open Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circle#28 in the world · win 2:0series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2NIO ban
73%50%
Inner Circle · 11 mapsedge Inner Circle +23%NIO · 0 maps
MirageNIO pick
46%50%
Inner Circle · 9 mapsnearly even -4%NIO · 0 maps
AncientInner Circle pick
64%50%
Inner Circle · 7 mapsedge Inner Circle +14%NIO · 0 maps
NukeInner Circle ban
60%50%
Inner Circle · 6 mapsedge Inner Circle +10%NIO · 0 maps
OverpassInner Circle ban
56%50%
Inner Circle · 5 mapsedge Inner Circle +6%NIO · 0 maps
AnubisNIO ban
67%50%
Inner Circle · 2 mapsedge Inner Circle +17%NIO · 0 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%50%
Inner Circle · 1 mapedge Inner Circle +10%NIO · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanInner Circle remove Overpass
2. BanNIO remove Dust2
3. PickInner Circle take Ancient
4. PickNIO take Mirage
5. BanNIO remove Anubis
6. BanInner Circle remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:0
Inner Circle 49%NIO 51%
The model gave 51% on NIO — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Ancientprediction correct13:1
Inner Circle 61%NIO 39%
The model gave 61% on Inner Circle — the map was taken by Inner Circle.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 87%
Series resultInner Circle 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2