Stake Pulse Beat III · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circle#28 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Sangal#48 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheSangal pick
67%67%
Inner Circle · 5 mapsnearly even +0%Sangal · 14 maps
NukeInner Circle ban
44%78%
Inner Circle · 5 mapsedge Sangal +34%Sangal · 14 maps
MirageSangal ban
55%53%
Inner Circle · 7 mapsnearly even +2%Sangal · 11 maps
AnubisInner Circle ban
40%60%
Inner Circle · 6 mapsedge Sangal +20%Sangal · 11 maps
Dust2Inner Circle pick
44%43%
Inner Circle · 5 mapsnearly even +1%Sangal · 10 maps
AncientSangal ban
55%45%
Inner Circle · 7 mapsedge Inner Circle +10%Sangal · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanInner Circle remove Nuke
2. BanSangal remove Ancient
3. PickInner Circle take Dust2
4. PickSangal take Cache
5. BanSangal remove Mirage
6. BanInner Circle remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed12:16
Inner Circle 55%Sangal 45%
The model gave 55% on Inner Circle — the map was taken by Sangal.
Cacheprediction correct11:13
Inner Circle 47%Sangal 53%
The model gave 53% on Sangal — the map was taken by Sangal.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 70%
Series resultSangal 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2