Digital Crusade Super DraculaN Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circle#28 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Sharks#51 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeSharks pick
50%71%
Inner Circle · 2 mapsedge Sharks +21%Sharks · 10 maps
AncientInner Circle ban
43%60%
Inner Circle · 3 mapsedge Sharks +17%Sharks · 6 maps
MirageInner Circle pick
56%29%
Inner Circle · 5 mapsedge Inner Circle +27%Sharks · 3 maps
OverpassSharks ban
57%29%
Inner Circle · 3 mapsedge Inner Circle +28%Sharks · 3 maps
Dust2Sharks ban
63%50%
Inner Circle · 4 mapsedge Inner Circle +13%Sharks · 0 maps
InfernoInner Circle ban
50%57%
Inner Circle · 0 mapsedge Sharks +7%Sharks · 3 maps
Anubispossible decider
50%50%
Inner Circle · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Sharks · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanInner Circle remove Inferno
2. BanSharks remove Dust2
3. PickInner Circle take Mirage
4. PickSharks take Nuke
5. BanSharks remove Overpass
6. BanInner Circle remove Ancient
DeciderAnubis (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:16
Inner Circle 78%Sharks 22%
The model gave 78% on Inner Circle — the map was taken by Sharks.
Nukeprediction correct17:19
Inner Circle 26%Sharks 74%
The model gave 74% on Sharks — the map was taken by Sharks.
Model check result
Model favoriteSharks · 55%
Series resultSharks 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2