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NODWIN Clutch Series 12 · BO3
result vs prediction
INOX Division#66 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Drama#135 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoINOX Division pick
61%50%
INOX Division · 29 mapsedge INOX Division +11%Drama · 2 maps
AncientDrama pick
60%67%
INOX Division · 21 mapedge Drama +7%Drama · 5 maps
Dust2INOX Division ban
48%29%
INOX Division · 21 mapedge INOX Division +19%Drama · 3 maps
Nukepossible decider
68%67%
INOX Division · 21 mapnearly even +1%Drama · 2 maps
CacheDrama ban
41%60%
INOX Division · 13 mapsedge Drama +19%Drama · 1 map
AnubisDrama ban
64%40%
INOX Division · 7 mapsedge INOX Division +24%Drama · 1 map
MirageINOX Division ban
50%63%
INOX Division · 0 mapsedge Drama +13%Drama · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINOX Division remove Mirage
2. BanDrama remove Anubis
3. PickINOX Division take Inferno
4. PickDrama take Ancient
5. BanDrama remove Cache
6. BanINOX Division remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (68% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:8
INOX Division 40%Drama 60%
The model gave 60% on Drama — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Nukeprediction missed5:13
INOX Division 55%Drama 45%
The model gave 55% on INOX Division — the map was taken by Drama.
Infernoprediction correct16:12
INOX Division 61%Drama 39%
The model gave 61% on INOX Division — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Model check result
Model favoriteINOX Division · 67%
Series resultINOX Division 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3