NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
INOX Division#66 in the world · win 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Honvéd#144 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Honvéd pick
60%55%
INOX Division · 16 mapsedge INOX Division +5%Honvéd · 29 maps
Ancientpossible decider
56%53%
INOX Division · 14 mapsnearly even +3%Honvéd · 13 maps
InfernoINOX Division pick
63%36%
INOX Division · 20 mapsedge INOX Division +27%Honvéd · 7 maps
MirageINOX Division ban
50%52%
INOX Division · 0 mapsnearly even -2%Honvéd · 25 maps
NukeHonvéd ban
70%56%
INOX Division · 16 mapsedge INOX Division +14%Honvéd · 5 maps
AnubisINOX Division ban
46%44%
INOX Division · 9 mapsnearly even +2%Honvéd · 5 maps
CacheHonvéd ban
56%50%
INOX Division · 5 mapsedge INOX Division +6%Honvéd · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINOX Division remove Mirage
2. BanHonvéd remove Nuke
3. PickINOX Division take Inferno
4. PickHonvéd take Dust2
5. BanHonvéd remove Cache
6. BanINOX Division remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (56% / 53%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:4
INOX Division 50%Honvéd 50%
The model gave 50% on Honvéd — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Infernoprediction correct13:9
INOX Division 77%Honvéd 23%
The model gave 77% on INOX Division — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Model check result
Model favoriteINOX Division · 60%
Series resultINOX Division 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2