ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
INOX Division#66 in the world · win 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Misa#115 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Misa pick
67%51%
INOX Division · 14 mapsedge INOX Division +16%Misa · 31 map
NukeMisa ban
72%47%
INOX Division · 14 mapsedge INOX Division +25%Misa · 15 maps
InfernoINOX Division pick
61%50%
INOX Division · 19 mapsedge INOX Division +11%Misa · 8 maps
AnubisINOX Division ban
42%50%
INOX Division · 8 mapsedge Misa +8%Misa · 16 maps
MirageINOX Division ban
50%42%
INOX Division · 0 mapsedge INOX Division +8%Misa · 22 maps
Cachepossible decider
56%40%
INOX Division · 5 mapsedge INOX Division +16%Misa · 11 maps
AncientMisa ban
56%60%
INOX Division · 12 mapsnearly even -4%Misa · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINOX Division remove Mirage
2. BanMisa remove Ancient
3. PickINOX Division take Inferno
4. PickMisa take Dust2
5. BanMisa remove Nuke
6. BanINOX Division remove Anubis
DeciderCache (56% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:7
INOX Division 39%Misa 61%
The model gave 61% on Misa — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Infernoprediction correct13:8
INOX Division 64%Misa 36%
The model gave 64% on INOX Division — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Model check result
Model favoriteINOX Division · 66%
Series resultINOX Division 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2