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NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
INOX Division#66 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SPARTA#96 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SPARTA pick
60%69%
INOX Division · 16 mapsedge SPARTA +9%SPARTA · 31 map
AncientSPARTA ban
60%45%
INOX Division · 16 mapsedge INOX Division +15%SPARTA · 18 maps
Nukepossible decider
67%55%
INOX Division · 17 mapsedge INOX Division +12%SPARTA · 16 maps
InfernoINOX Division pick
65%54%
INOX Division · 22 mapsedge INOX Division +11%SPARTA · 9 maps
MirageINOX Division ban
50%56%
INOX Division · 0 mapsedge SPARTA +6%SPARTA · 21 map
CacheINOX Division ban
56%50%
INOX Division · 5 mapsedge INOX Division +6%SPARTA · 10 maps
AnubisSPARTA ban
46%43%
INOX Division · 9 mapsnearly even +3%SPARTA · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINOX Division remove Mirage
2. BanSPARTA remove Anubis
3. PickINOX Division take Inferno
4. PickSPARTA take Dust2
5. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
6. BanINOX Division remove Cache
DeciderNuke (67% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
INOX Division 38%SPARTA 62%
The model gave 62% on SPARTA — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Infernoprediction missed7:13
INOX Division 65%SPARTA 35%
The model gave 65% on INOX Division — the map was taken by SPARTA.
Nukeprediction correct13:5
INOX Division 62%SPARTA 38%
The model gave 62% on INOX Division — the map was taken by INOX Division.
Model check result
Model favoriteINOX Division · 70%
Series resultINOX Division 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3