European Pro League Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
INOX Division#66 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Vexar#141 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientVexar pick
60%52%
INOX Division · 21 mapedge INOX Division +8%Vexar · 21 map
InfernoINOX Division pick
63%56%
INOX Division · 28 mapsedge INOX Division +7%Vexar · 5 maps
Nukepossible decider
65%36%
INOX Division · 22 mapsedge INOX Division +29%Vexar · 10 maps
Dust2INOX Division ban
45%60%
INOX Division · 18 mapsedge Vexar +15%Vexar · 6 maps
AnubisVexar ban
67%30%
INOX Division · 8 mapsedge INOX Division +37%Vexar · 6 maps
CacheVexar ban
39%50%
INOX Division · 14 mapsedge Vexar +11%Vexar · 0 maps
MirageINOX Division ban
50%59%
INOX Division · 0 mapsedge Vexar +9%Vexar · 13 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanINOX Division remove Mirage
2. BanVexar remove Cache
3. PickINOX Division take Inferno
4. PickVexar take Ancient
5. BanVexar remove Anubis
6. BanINOX Division remove Dust2
DeciderNuke (65% / 36%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed7:13
INOX Division 60%Vexar 40%
The model gave 60% on INOX Division — the map was taken by Vexar.
Ancientprediction missed9:13
INOX Division 55%Vexar 45%
The model gave 55% on INOX Division — the map was taken by Vexar.
Model check result
Model favoriteINOX Division · 64%
Series resultVexar 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2