NSTLGA League Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Iowa Stormboar#161 in the world · win 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Beyond Limits#206 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeIowa Stormboar pick
46%60%
Iowa Stormboar · 9 mapsedge Beyond Limits +14%Beyond Limits · 1 map
InfernoIowa Stormboar ban
30%57%
Iowa Stormboar · 6 mapsedge Beyond Limits +27%Beyond Limits · 3 maps
MirageBeyond Limits ban
55%40%
Iowa Stormboar · 7 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +15%Beyond Limits · 1 map
Dust2Beyond Limits pick
50%50%
Iowa Stormboar · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Beyond Limits · 0 maps
Ancientpossible decider
71%50%
Iowa Stormboar · 3 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +21%Beyond Limits · 0 maps
AnubisIowa Stormboar ban
50%40%
Iowa Stormboar · 2 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +10%Beyond Limits · 1 map
CacheBeyond Limits ban
50%50%
Iowa Stormboar · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Beyond Limits · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIowa Stormboar remove Inferno
2. BanBeyond Limits remove Mirage
3. PickIowa Stormboar take Nuke
4. PickBeyond Limits take Dust2
5. BanBeyond Limits remove Cache
6. BanIowa Stormboar remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (71% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed16:14
Iowa Stormboar 47%Beyond Limits 53%
The model gave 53% on Beyond Limits — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
Iowa Stormboar 67%Beyond Limits 33%
The model gave 67% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Model check result
Model favoriteIowa Stormboar · 53%
Series resultIowa Stormboar 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2