ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Iowa Stormboar#162 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageIowa Stormboar pick
67%56%
Iowa Stormboar · 11 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +11%FarmVille · 5 maps
Dust2possible decider
73%33%
Iowa Stormboar · 7 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +40%FarmVille · 8 maps
InfernoIowa Stormboar ban
30%23%
Iowa Stormboar · 6 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +7%FarmVille · 9 maps
CacheFarmVille pick
50%56%
Iowa Stormboar · 4 mapsedge FarmVille +6%FarmVille · 5 maps
AncientFarmVille ban
63%57%
Iowa Stormboar · 4 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +6%FarmVille · 3 maps
NukeFarmVille ban
36%50%
Iowa Stormboar · 7 mapsedge FarmVille +14%FarmVille · 0 maps
AnubisIowa Stormboar ban
29%60%
Iowa Stormboar · 3 mapsedge FarmVille +31%FarmVille · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIowa Stormboar remove Anubis
2. BanFarmVille remove Nuke
3. PickIowa Stormboar take Mirage
4. PickFarmVille take Cache
5. BanFarmVille remove Ancient
6. BanIowa Stormboar remove Inferno
DeciderDust2 (73% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:9
Iowa Stormboar 42%FarmVille 58%
The model gave 58% on FarmVille — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Mirageprediction missed5:13
Iowa Stormboar 64%FarmVille 36%
The model gave 64% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by FarmVille.
Dust2prediction missed8:13
Iowa Stormboar 84%FarmVille 16%
The model gave 84% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by FarmVille.
Model check result
Model favoriteIowa Stormboar · 65%
Series resultFarmVille 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3