?
arrow_backBack to match
NSTLGA League Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Iowa Stormboar#162 in the world · win 2:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Overtake Sector#143 in the world · loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageOvertake Sector pick
43%43%
Iowa Stormboar · 3 mapsnearly even +0%Overtake Sector · 3 maps
Ancientpossible decider
40%33%
Iowa Stormboar · 1 mapedge Iowa Stormboar +7%Overtake Sector · 2 maps
Dust2Iowa Stormboar pick
60%40%
Iowa Stormboar · 1 mapedge Iowa Stormboar +20%Overtake Sector · 1 map
InfernoOvertake Sector ban
50%33%
Iowa Stormboar · 0 mapsedge Iowa Stormboar +17%Overtake Sector · 2 maps
NukeOvertake Sector ban
50%50%
Iowa Stormboar · 2 mapsnearly even +0%Overtake Sector · 0 maps
AnubisIowa Stormboar ban
50%60%
Iowa Stormboar · 0 mapsedge Overtake Sector +10%Overtake Sector · 1 map
OverpassIowa Stormboar ban
50%60%
Iowa Stormboar · 0 mapsedge Overtake Sector +10%Overtake Sector · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIowa Stormboar remove Overpass
2. BanOvertake Sector remove Nuke
3. PickIowa Stormboar take Dust2
4. PickOvertake Sector take Mirage
5. BanOvertake Sector remove Inferno
6. BanIowa Stormboar remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (40% / 33%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed4:13
Iowa Stormboar 72%Overtake Sector 28%
The model gave 72% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by Overtake Sector.
Mirageprediction missed13:7
Iowa Stormboar 47%Overtake Sector 53%
The model gave 53% on Overtake Sector — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Ancientprediction correct13:9
Iowa Stormboar 57%Overtake Sector 43%
The model gave 57% on Iowa Stormboar — the map was taken by Iowa Stormboar.
Model check result
Model favoriteIowa Stormboar · 50%
Series resultIowa Stormboar 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3