Thunderpick World Championship 2026 South America Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Isurus#186 in the world · win 2:0series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Isurus pick
53%53%
Isurus · 15 mapsnearly even +0%Fake do Biru · 15 maps
MirageFake do Biru ban
54%38%
Isurus · 9 mapsedge Isurus +16%Fake do Biru · 4 maps
Infernopossible decider
50%50%
Isurus · 6 mapsnearly even +0%Fake do Biru · 6 maps
NukeFake do Biru pick
50%70%
Isurus · 6 mapsedge Fake do Biru +20%Fake do Biru · 6 maps
AncientFake do Biru ban
50%50%
Isurus · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Fake do Biru · 0 maps
AnubisIsurus ban
50%44%
Isurus · 0 mapsedge Isurus +6%Fake do Biru · 5 maps
OverpassIsurus ban
43%50%
Isurus · 3 mapsedge Fake do Biru +7%Fake do Biru · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIsurus remove Anubis
2. BanFake do Biru remove Ancient
3. PickIsurus take Dust2
4. PickFake do Biru take Nuke
5. BanFake do Biru remove Mirage
6. BanIsurus remove Overpass
DeciderInferno (50% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:6
Isurus 69%Fake do Biru 31%
The model gave 69% on Isurus — the map was taken by Isurus.
Nukeprediction missed19:17
Isurus 28%Fake do Biru 72%
The model gave 72% on Fake do Biru — the map was taken by Isurus.
Model check result
Model favoriteFake do Biru · 52%
Series resultIsurus 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2