BetBoom Storm Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Isurus#186 in the world · win 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Grêmio#201 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Isurus pick
67%56%
Isurus · 14 mapsedge Isurus +11%Grêmio · 5 maps
InfernoGrêmio pick
42%56%
Isurus · 8 mapsedge Grêmio +14%Grêmio · 5 maps
MirageGrêmio ban
54%29%
Isurus · 9 mapsedge Isurus +25%Grêmio · 3 maps
NukeIsurus ban
46%43%
Isurus · 9 mapsnearly even +3%Grêmio · 3 maps
AncientIsurus ban
45%40%
Isurus · 7 mapsedge Isurus +5%Grêmio · 1 map
CacheGrêmio ban
71%43%
Isurus · 3 mapsedge Isurus +28%Grêmio · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
67%60%
Isurus · 2 mapsedge Isurus +7%Grêmio · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIsurus remove Ancient
2. BanGrêmio remove Mirage
3. PickIsurus take Dust2
4. PickGrêmio take Inferno
5. BanGrêmio remove Cache
6. BanIsurus remove Nuke
DeciderDefault (67% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed13:5
Isurus 34%Grêmio 66%
The model gave 66% on Grêmio — the map was taken by Isurus.
Dust2prediction correct13:10
Isurus 64%Grêmio 36%
The model gave 64% on Isurus — the map was taken by Isurus.
Model check result
Model favoriteIsurus · 62%
Series resultIsurus 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2